Gold’s Nine-Week Streak in Historical Context

Editor
Oct 17
11 min read

A Rare Feat: Nine Consecutive Bullish Weekly Candles

Gold’s current 9-week string of weekly gains is an extraordinarily rare event. In the past few decades of freely traded gold prices (since the 1970s), such long winning streaks have only occurred a handful of times. One analysis found that since 1978, gold has logged a 7-week rally only 9 times, and extended to an 8th week just once – while 9 consecutive up-weeks happened only three times[1]. Another study looking from 1980 onward similarly notes just four instances of 8+ weekly advances[2]. No streak beyond 9 weeks appears in modern records, making nine the longest ever streak for gold. In fact, prior to the current run, the last 9-week streak was in 2020 (during the pandemic rally), which itself was the first such occurrence since 2006[3]. Table 1 below summarizes historical streaks of eight or more weekly gains and their outcomes:

Table 1 – Historical Long Streaks in Gold and Their Aftermath

Period (Approx.)	Streak Length	What Followed
Jan 1980 (peak)	8 weekly gains	Major top; gold crashed ~71% over a 19-year secular bear market[4].
Late 2002 – Jan 2003	8 weekly gains	~18% correction over the next 9 weeks[5] before resuming uptrend.
Mar – May 2006	9 weekly gains	Sharp 25–26% drop in ~1 month[4][6]; gold quickly rebounded within 5 weeks.
Jun – Aug 2020	9 weekly gains	Peaked at record ~$2,075; then a 22% drawdown over ~2 years[7] (multi-year consolidation).
Aug – Oct 2025	9 weekly gains	Current streak – outcome to be determined.

As Table 1 highlights, gold has only recorded 9 or more up-weeks in a row about 3–6 times in modern history (depending on dataset) – underscoring just how unusual the current run is. Nine weeks up is effectively the ceiling of gold’s historical streaks; a 10th week would break the all-time record. The fact that we’ve reached nine consecutive green weekly candles puts this rally in elite company with 2006 and 2020 (and possibly late 1979 – more on that below).

What Tends to Happen After Such Streaks?

History suggests that extended gold rallies often lose momentum afterward. Forward returns following the end of past multi-week win streaks have generally been weak or negative. For example, an analysis of prior long rallies found median gold returns of –3% to –6% in the 1–20 weeks after the streaks ended[8]. In fact, the probability of a decline in gold prices in the weeks following a 7+ week rally was extremely high (over 80% in the short term)[9].

Looking at the specific past episodes in Table 1: in every case, gold pulled back shortly after the streak ended. Notably:

After the 1980 streak (which coincided with gold’s famous January 1980 peak around $850), the metal entered a prolonged bear market. That 8-week surge was essentially a blow-off top that led to a multi-decade decline[4]. (To be fair, that 71% “crash” was drawn out over many years, not a single plunge – a unique outlier scenario.)
In 2003, gold’s 8-week run (late 2002 into early 2003) immediately gave way to an 18% correction over the next 9 weeks[5] before the uptrend resumed. The streak marked a short-term top.
In May 2006, gold’s 9-week winning streak culminated with a surge to about $730/oz (a 26-year high at the time). What followed was a swift drop to ~$543 by June – a 26% plunge in one month[6]. Fortunately for bulls it was short-lived: gold rebounded sharply within weeks, recovering much of the loss[10]. Still, the streak marked a significant interim peak.
The 2020 streak (9 up-weeks through early August 2020) coincided with gold’s then-record high around $2,075. Gold did not crash overnight, but it ground lower in a long consolidation – ultimately sliding about 22% from that high over the next two years[7]. It wasn’t until 2022–2023 that gold decisively broke above the 2020 high.

In sum, history’s message is that after extraordinary 8–9 week rallies, gold has typically struggled in the immediate aftermath. Sometimes the pullback was a quick 1–2 month correction; in other cases it ushered in a lengthy period of consolidation or even a major peak. The common denominator is that buying fervor cooled off once the streak ended. As one analyst succinctly observed: “Gold eventually found its footing, but a pullback always came first” following these runs[11].

Longest Winning Streak on Record – Are We Tying or Breaking It?

Nine weeks up is the longest streak ever documented for gold, and the current rally has now reached that record length. Previous gold bull runs never exceeded 9 consecutive weekly gains according to available data[1]. (Even during gold’s 1979–1980 mania, there appears to have been a brief pause or down-week that prevented a longer unbroken streak.) Thus, the ongoing 9-week streak ties the all-time record.

If gold manages to chalk up a 10th straight weekly gain, it would be uncharted territory – an unprecedented feat in gold’s modern history. In that sense, we are on the verge of making history (or at least matching it, if the streak ends here). Traders are well aware of this rarity: for instance, during the 8th week of the rally, news outlets noted it was the longest weekly win streak for gold in about 19 years (since 2006)[3]. Now at nine, the focus is on whether gold can break the streak record or if a reversal is imminent. History would suggest caution as each additional consecutive up-week becomes statistically less likely – but 2025’s unique conditions have already bucked many norms.

Does the Largest Weekly Candle Signal Exhaustion or Acceleration?

The latest weekly candle in this streak was huge – gold jumped from roughly $3,996 to $4,347 (about +8.6%) in a single week, the largest gain of the entire 9-week run. Such explosive final-week surges often raise the question: Is this a “blow-off” indicating trend exhaustion, or a sign of momentum accelerating further?

Historically, a sudden outsized weekly jump late in an uptrend has often meant exhaustion. Market technicians note that parabolic rallies frequently end with a climactic surge as late buyers pile in – only for the trend to reverse soon after. We’ve seen analogous patterns in gold before:

In January 1980, during gold’s climactic run to $850, the final weeks saw extreme gains (and volatility). That frenzy marked the top, not a new base[12].
In August 2011, gold had a sharp multi-week blow-off (gaining over $200/oz in a few weeks to ~$1,920) and then abruptly reversed, kicking off a multi-year decline.
In the 2020 rally, the largest weekly gains (gold up ~5–6% in a week to its $2,075 high) were immediately followed by a bearish reversal and correction.

Technical indicators at the moment also point to overextension. Gold’s weekly RSI (Relative Strength Index) recently breached 90 – a level of overbought strength last seen at the end of 1979’s mania[13]. Gold is trading over 20% above its 200-day moving average, and price action has “ridden the top” of Bollinger Bands for weeks, reflecting extreme positive volatility[14]. These signals typically suggest a high probability of a pullback or at least a cooling period. The World Gold Council notes that such technical extremes (e.g. RSI > 90) often lead short-term traders to position for a reversal[15].

“Gold has notched its biggest weekly gain in five years… experts warn the dazzling rally could soon expose deeper risks once an inevitable correction hits.”[16][17]

The quote above, from a report on the current $4,300+ surge, encapsulates sentiment that this explosive move is likely a trend climax. Analysts and financial planners are cautioning investors not to chase the euphoria blindly – the consensus is that such vertical moves are unsustainable in the short term[18]. In other words, this giant weekly candle more likely signifies overheated, exhausted momentum rather than a healthy continuation signal.

Counterpoint: Could it instead be a sign of breakout acceleration (i.e. a new leg higher)? In very rare cases, markets that go “vertical” can indeed keep running for a time, usually driven by a frenzy of speculation or a paradigm-shifting event. If one believes gold is entering a 1979-style blow-off phase, a big weekly candle could be just the start of a parabolic climax (with even larger moves ahead). We explore that scenario next.

Will Gold Shoot for $5,000 in the Next 3 Weeks? (Momentum vs. Precedent)

To reach $5,000 from around $4,350, gold would need another ~15% gain within three weeks. Given historical precedent, such a feat would be highly ambitious – but not entirely impossible under extreme conditions. Let’s examine the context:

Historical momentum: Outside of the 1979–80 episode, gold has never advanced another 15%+ in just 3 weeks immediately after an already lengthy rally. Typically, by the time gold has logged 8–9 consecutive up-weeks, its momentum was waning, not waxing. For example, none of the prior streaks in Table 1 saw a further surge of that magnitude in the ensuing weeks – instead, they reversed or flattened. Under “normal” circumstances, we’d expect some consolidation or pullback here rather than an additional vertical climb.

However, 1979’s mania provides a precedent for an extreme melt-up. In late 1979, after a brief pause in October, gold entered a hyperbolic run in November–December. The metal gained roughly 60% in the final two months of 1979, and then skyrocketed in early January 1980 (reaching an all-time high of $850 from about $400 just a few months prior)[12]. If one maps that percentage onto today: gold is already +60% year-to-date in 2025[19]; a 1979-style finale could conceivably propel gold well beyond $5,000 (some analogues point to ~$8,500 if the move were proportional[20]). The pattern in 1979 was “brief consolidation, then surge, surge, surge… then a plunge.”[12] It shows that yes, gold can explode higher even after a long rally, in a blow-off scenario. Crucially, though, that kind of move is exceptionally rare and tends to mark the end of a cycle.

From a fundamental and tactical perspective, for $5,000 to hit in the next few weeks, virtually everything would need to go right for gold. One would likely need a combination of intensifying safe-haven flows, perhaps escalating geopolitical or economic crises, and/or a collapse in the U.S. dollar or bond yields to drive a frenzy of buying. It’s worth noting that gold’s recent rally has indeed been driven by a confluence of bullish factors (e.g. global tensions, a U.S. government shutdown, expectations of Fed rate cuts, heavy investment demand)[21][22]. These drivers have already led to record inflows into gold ETFs and rapid price gains[23]. Bulls argue that if those factors persist or amplify, momentum could carry gold higher in the near term than history would normally suggest. In extraordinary times, markets can overshoot.

That said, most analysts remain cautious about immediately extrapolating to $5k. Even some of the most optimistic forecasts (e.g. major banks calling for $5,000 gold) set that target on a multi-year timeline (by 2026), not within weeks[24][25]. The current rally already puts gold well ahead of typical schedule – for instance, the pace of the move from $3,500 to $4,000 was 36 days, versus ~1,000 days for similar $500 increments historically[26]. This underscores that we are in a faster-than-normal upswing. To accelerate even more and sustain it for three additional weeks would imply an extreme, blow-off acceleration phase. It’s not impossible, but would break the pattern of how gold usually trades.

In summary, a near-term rally toward $5,000 cannot be ruled out, especially if 2025 truly mirrors the 1979 parabolic finale. There is historical precedent for a final burst – and gold is arguably in a similarly fervent environment now (e.g. YTD gains >60%, comparisons to 1979 abound[27]). But precedent also warns that such bursts are fleeting and tend to reverse violently. If gold did sprint to $5k in the next few weeks, it would likely be accompanied by classic signs of trend exhaustion (extreme overbought technicals, euphoric sentiment) and could invite a sharp correction thereafter. Many market observers believe a more probable course is a short-term cooling off before any attempt at higher highs. As one report put it, “history suggests a gold correction is due ‘any week now’” after an 8+ week streak[28].

Bottom line: Pushing to $5,000 so soon would require breaking historical patterns – effectively entering a blow-off phase that few traders have ever seen in gold. While the ingredients for a continued surge (inflation fears, geopolitics, dollar weakness, momentum buying) are present, the prudent expectation based on past episodes is that gold will take a breather before making an assault on the $5k level. The coming weeks will test whether 2025’s rally is merely strong, or truly stratospheric enough to rewrite the history books.

Conclusion and Outlook

Gold’s nine-week winning streak underscores just how extraordinary the current rally is. We have essentially tied the longest run of continuous weekly gains in gold’s modern history. Past instances of such streaks have almost always been followed by at least a short-term correction or sideways period, and we are seeing technical signs (like record RSI readings and huge weekly candles) that often precede a reversal. Caution is warranted: gold often “takes a breather” after sprinting this far, this fast[8][28].

However, the broader context of 2025 – with gold hitting new all-time highs above $4,300 – suggests we may be at an inflection point. Either the market will behave as it typically has, meaning some cooling-off or pullback is imminent (offering perhaps a healthier base for the longer-term uptrend to continue later), or we could be in the midst of a late-cycle parabolic climb akin to 1979, in which case prices might surprise to the upside (even $5,000+) before any major correction.

Investors should watch for key signs in the coming weeks: Does the 9-week streak snap with a notable weekly decline, confirming an overdue correction? Or does gold defy the odds with a 10th (and 11th…) weekly gain, indicating a possible speculative “blow-off” run? Additionally, external drivers – such as central bank policy signals, currency moves, or geopolitical flare-ups – will heavily influence whether momentum feeds on itself or falters.

In any case, history suggests that even if a near-term pullback occurs, it need not derail gold’s longer-term bull market. After prior streaks, gold eventually resumed its broader uptrend once excesses were worked off[29][30]. Many analysts remain structurally bullish on gold, citing factors like persistent inflation hedging, central bank buying, and geopolitical risk as supportive for higher prices after any correction. Thus, a dip from these lofty levels could be seen as a buying opportunity – a chance for the rally to “refuel” for a stab at $5,000 later, if not immediately[31].

In summary, gold’s 9-week win streak is a historically rare event that puts the current rally in the record books. Similar streaks in the past were usually followed by corrections, so a short-term cooldown would be the historically favored outcome (and even a healthy development for the market). Yet with gold’s price action echoing the late-1970s spike in some respects[27], we can’t entirely dismiss the scenario of a continued melt-up toward $5,000 in the very near term – it would be unprecedented, but this rally has already been full of surprises. Whether gold pauses or presses on, the coming weeks are poised to be pivotal. Keep an eye on that weekly candle count – every additional green week from here is history in the making, and every pullback will test the conviction of this remarkable run.

Stay informed. Stay diversified. Stay steady.

That’s how we trade at TradeX. By TradeX Research Team — October 2025

Automated Trading. Transparent Insights. Informed Decisions.

Sources: Historical gold price data and streak analysis[1][4]; outcomes after past rallies[8][4]; news and analyst commentary on the current rally and technical conditions[17][12][15]; World Gold Council and media reports on gold’s 2025 performance[27][21].